Tuesday, July 17, 2007

Books to Consider

Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk
A Random Walk Down Wall Street: The Time-Tested Strategy for Successful Investing, Ninth Edition
Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk
The Arithmetic of Life and Death
The Art of Asset Allocation : Asset Allocation Principles and Investment Strategies for any Market
Asset Allocation: Balancing Financial Risk
Advances in Behavioral Finance, Volume II (The Roundtable Series in Behavioral Economics)
Beyond Greed and Fear: Understanding Behavioral Finance and the Psychology of Investing

Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
The Fortune Sellers: The Big Business of Buying and Selling Predictions
The Future for Investors: Why the Tried and the True Triumph Over the Bold and the New
Stocks for the Long Run : The Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns and Long-Term Investment Strategies
The Great Mutual Fund Trap: An Investment Recovery Plan
Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment
Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases
The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making
The Misbehavior of Markets
The Only Guide to a Winning Investment Strategy You'll Ever Need: The Way Smart Money Preserves Wealth Today
What Wall Street Doesn't Want You to Know: How You Can Build Real Wealth Investing in Index Funds
Rational Investing in Irrational Times: How to Avoid the Costly Mistakes Even Smart People Make Today
Patterns in the Dark: Understanding Risk and Financial Crisis with Complexity Theory
Puzzles of Finance: Six Practical Problems and Their Remarkable Solutions
Randomness
Rational Choice in an Uncertain World: The Psychology of Judgement and Decision Making
Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions
The Winner's Curse
Winning the Loser's Game
The Wisdom of Crowds
Why Smart People Make Big Money Mistakes And How To Correct Them: Lessons From The New Science Of Behavioral Economics

The Only Investment Formula You'll Ever Need


Well, that’s a little exaggerated, you do need to figure out what percentage of your portfolio should be in stocks, how much in bonds, or in money market funds.
But for picking stocks, this formula will guarantee you avoid costly investment mistakes.

A = Total Stock Market
B = Active investors (traders, stock pickers, money managers, hedge funds)
C = Passive Investors (index buyers)
Y = Rate of return for the market
X = what we want to know

If Y, the market rate of return, is 12%, then the rate earned by C, passive investors, must also be 12%.
Let’s say for now that 70% of the investors are active, and 30% are passive index investors. So out of 100, or any number you like, could be a million or a skillion, but 100 will serve for now, there are
70 active investors
30 passive investors
Y is 12%
Plug in the numbers: 12%(A) = X%(B) + !2%(C)
So, given these facts, what did B, active investors, earn?

Let me simplify life for you, no matter what numbers you use for the market return, or the percentages of active versus passive investors, the answer is the same. In this case 12%.
Yes, the % earned by active investors averages the same percentage as both the market and passive investors, and obviously, not all active investors earn the same thing. some earn more, some less. The problem is that year over year, there is no way to predict which active investor will finish ahead, or which one will fall behind. It only looks that way when you look at the single most misleading, portfolio damaging indicator in the world, past performance.
I will discuss the absolute uselessness of past performance data in another section.

Before you challenge me on any of this math as flawed, let me point out it wasn’t me who thought it up. The general topic is discussed in Commentary, and a link to the article can be found in Referenced Articles. It is also referenced below
The formula used here is adapted from The Successful Investor Today, by Larry E. Swedroe,
St. Martin’s Press 2003.
For most equity investors, I believe in passive, index investing. I refer you to The Arithmetic of Active Management by William Sharpe, Nobel Laureate and Professor Emeritus at Stanford University as to the specifics of why. You can find that article in the section of this site called "Referenced Articles."
Essentially, Sharpe demonstrates mathematically why it is impossible for active investors as a group to perform any better than indexes, before costs. After costs, active investors must do worse. Are there active investors who will "outperform" from time to time? Of course, but always at the expense of other active investors who underperformed. Passive investors, by definition, get the market's rate of return, no more, no less. By the way, the active investors who do beat the market in any given year are almost never the same ones who beat it the next year. The simple arithmetic is that some fund manager will beat the market, but it's not likely to be the one you choose, and if it is, it's not likely that he can repeat the following year.

Basics

1) Stock prices are mostly efficiently priced, incorporating all known information about the company.
2) Based on the above, it makes no sense to attempt to buy "good" stocks and sell "bad" ones. It wastes energy and money, your money.
3) Portfolio development should be based on client objectives, temperament and financial resources.
4) There are 4 factors that determine investment success. Here they are.

A) asset allocation-how the portfolio is divided up between stocks, bonds, real estate and cash
B) diversification-a variety of securities in each of the asset classes above.
C) rebalancing-adjusting the portfolio to keep it allocated according to the plan we devise for you. Keeps one asset class from getting too fat while the other gets too lean.
D) advice-you need it. You can read why in the Commentary Posts.

There is a 5th factor which is essential, but doesn't involve the structure of the portfolio as in the 4 factors above. The 5th element is time. Investors are way too antsy. Good investment results take time.
As Warren Buffett is fond of saying, "You can't make a baby in one month by getting 9 women pregnant."

Who is Investment Advisor?

That's a blog name, it's meant for anyone who is tired of trying to follow so called "investment advice," and finding out, whether it was free or very expensive, it not only isn't worth much, it costs in losses beyond fees and commissions.
So, you know the nonsense, from likely painful personal experience. Or you'd like to avoid the costly problem in the first place. You will find this information and commentary useful.
The author has some reasonable credentials. A near 30 year veteran of the securities industry, as a financial advisor, CFP, branch manager and securities industry arbitrator. I am not an expert on securities law. If you need that sort of thing, it's advice worth paying for, so find a knowledgeable attorney and follow their advice.
I am as expert as one can get in securities market investing. Through training and personal experience, through originally trying to pick winning stocks, commodities and options. I know what I'm talking about because I've made all the mistakes, with my money. When I was in the business, I never experimented with client money. Clients generally felt I was too conservative. I've tried all manner of trading schemes, followed systems, sent money to mutual funds and money managers. In 28 years, I've learned some things I will share with you. Most of you won't follow the suggestions, it's human nature. It's also why the suggestions will work, they take human nature into account.